Response surfaces and sensitivity analyses for an environmental model of dose calculations

A parametric sensitivity analysis is carried out on GASCON, a radiological impact software describing the radionuclides transfer to the man following a chronic gas release of a nuclear facility. An effective dose received by age group can thus be calculated according to a specific radionuclide and to the duration of the release. In this study, we are concerned by 18 output variables, each depending of approximately 50 uncertain input parameters. First, the generation of 1000 Monte-Carlo simulations allows us to calculate correlation coefficients between input parameters and output variables, which give a first overview of important factors. Response surfaces are then constructed in polynomial form, and used to predict system responses at reduced computation time cost; this response surface will be very useful for global sensitivity analysis where thousands of runs are required. Using the response surfaces, we calculate the total sensitivity indices of Sobol by the Monte-Carlo method. We demonstrate the application of this method to one site of study and to one reference group near the nuclear research Center of Cadarache (France), for two radionuclides: iodine 129 and uranium 238. It is thus shown that the most influential parameters are all related to the food chain of the goat’s milk, in decreasing order of importance: dose coefficient ‘‘effective ingestion’’, goat’s milk ration of the individuals of the reference group, grass ration of the goat, dry deposition velocity and transfer factor to the goat’s milk. r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.